Amazon says fully automated shipping warehouses are at least a decade away

Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The future of Amazon’s logistics network will undoubtedly involve artificial intelligence and robotics, but it’s an open question at what point AI-powered machines will be doing a majority of the work. According to Scott Anderson, the company’s director of robotics fulfillment, the point at which an Amazon warehouse is fully, end-to-end automated is at least 10 years away. Anderson’s comments, reported today by Reuters, highlight the current pace of automation, even in environments that are ripe for robotic labor, like an Amazon warehouse.

As it stands today, robots in the workforce are proficient mostly at specific, repeatable tasks for which they are precisely programmed. To get the robot to do something else takes expensive, time-consuming reprogramming. And robots that can perform multiple different tasks and operate in dynamic environments that require the robot see and understand its surroundings are still firmly in the realm of research and experimental trials. Even the simple process of identifying an object and picking it up without having been trained on that object before requires a series of complex, sophisticated software and hardware that does not yet exist in commercial fashion.

But as part of the ongoing deep learning revolution that’s accelerated the progress of AI research over the last decade, robots are starting to gain levels of vision and motor control that are approaching human-levels of sophistication. Amazon is one of the companies pioneering such robots, and it’s held an annual so-called picking challenge, after the warehouse term from picking up one object to move it to another part of the logistics chain, to promote advances in the field.

According to Reuters, Amazon has 110 warehouses in the US, 45 sorting centers, and roughly 50 delivery stations, all of which employ more than 125,000 full-time warehouse workers. But only a fraction of the overall labor is performed by robots. Right now, robots are simply too imprecise and clumsy and require too much training to be deployed on factory floors outside very narrow use cases.

For instance, Amazon uses small, Roomba-shaped robots simply called “drives” mostly to deliver large stacks of products to human workers, by following set paths around the warehouse. “In the current form, the technology is very limited. The technology is very far from the fully automated workstation that we would need,” Anderson told Reuters, which toured an Amazon warehouse in Baltimore earlier today.

Article: The Urban Land Institute’s annual look at the year ahead focuses on technology and transformation at an uncertain moment

How will the real estate market respond to a period of uncertainty in 2019?
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It’s complicated. In the course of compiling its annual Emerging Trends report, the Urban Land Institute found that the only certainty in its outlook for 2019 was uncertainty. Expert analysis points to a more complex, multi-layered series of overlapping trends, with unpredictable results, as opposed to a few strong narratives.

Will technology offer more opportunity and enhance competition and efficiency, or help consolidate the industry and drive out smaller players? How will shifts in demographics and shopping patterns challenge current investment practices? Will the U.S. ever get a grip on its housing affordability issues?

The report, a joint project of ULI and PricewaterhouseCoopers researchers unveiled during its fall meeting in Boston this afternoon, considered the responses of more than 750 real estate professionals in creating an high-level overview of the trends it believes will impact the real estate world. While the report expects an overall economic slowdown next year, emerging trends and markets in flux that could provide new opportunities.

Here are the broad trends and innovations expected to shape the real estate industry next year.

Grappling with a transformative moment

While vague, predicting a year of significant transformation only reflects the climate of uncertainty and possibility that’s settled over the market. This year alone, the homebuying market was expected to be the most competitive in history before buyers pumped the brakes later in the year. After years of steady growth and low interest rates, many observers anticipate a correction, especially in the face new technology, generational and demographic changes, the rise of new markets, and the continued winding-down of traditional retail. One survey respondent described the feeling of “coming off a peak,” and others have said the “low-hanging fruit has been picked.”

One of the most far-reaching changes rewriting the way real estate professionals do business has been the rise of industry-specific technology, startups, and better and more transparent analytics. In many cases, capital is following fintech, or financial tech, leading to more efficient—and automated—transactions.

Construction labor shortages continue to hamstring the homebuilding industry.
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Tapering growth leads to a new numbers game

Less growth means a more challenging environment, and analysts predict a slow down on multiple fronts. Population growth has continued to trickle up, labor force availability, especially in the construction industry, is lackluster at best, and productivity figures for the economy at large show minuscule improvements. Add in government forecasts of an economic slowdown—Congressional Budget Office projections show average GDP growth of 1.9 percent in 2018-19, much slower than at the beginning of the current economic upswing—and real estate activity will likely taper off as well. This deceleration means identifying and capitalizing on new opportunities—such as emerging markets, replacing older buildings, adaptive reuse, and new office space—will be much harder.

Second cities, and now their suburbs, may be key markets

Investors have long seen urban revitalization in smaller U.S. cities as a great bet, but as these downtowns boom and millennials continue to return, young adults have started to make inroads into the suburbs. Researchers are seeing more evidence the younger generation that put off buying a home has its eyes on single-family homes, meaning that housing surrounding these so-called 18-hour cities—especially if it’s in walkable, transit-oriented developments—is in high demand. Census Bureau stats show evidence of a second-city suburban shift. Over 2.6 million people annually moved from principal cities within metropolitan areas to the suburbs in 2016 and 2017, and of the smaller markets in the ULI’s Top 20 emerging market report, 55 percent of new residents over the last five years have relocated to suburban homes.

Can your apartment complex keep up?
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Amenity creep and the apartment arms race

In a competitive housing market, apartment landlords and builders have been engaging in an arms race for new amenities. Fancy gyms and rooftop access doesn’t cut it anymore. Today’s cutting-edge multifamily developments include movie theaters, dog runs, communal gardens, and access to coworking space. As landlords “knock themselves over” looking for new selling points to attract downtown renters, smart home and service-economy firms are also rising to the challenge, offering benefits such as laundry service.

Technology tackles the real estate market

Tech has always had its eye on opportunity, and real estate, which represents 13 percent of the U.S. GDP, is a big prize. Next year will see increasing inroads by tech firms, services, and startups seeking to capture and consolidate this fragmented market. Venture capital and tech investors have responded in kind. CB Insights projects real estate tech investment may top $5.2 billion by the end of 2018, firms such as Fifth Wall have zeroed-in on the industry, and investment in building and construction tech has boomed. New platforms for home selling keep popping up, trying to disrupt how this traditional transaction works.

Continued rise of artificial intelligence

Will hype about the game-changing potential of artificial intelligence begin to manifest itself in the real estate industry? While some tech startups have integrated AI into their market analyses, perhaps the most immediately relevant use for machine learning and other emerging technologies is building management, organization, and design. Companies such as WeWork, and smart buildings such as The Edge already see big potential in analyzing user behavior in their shared office space to refine their offerings, redesign the layout of their spaces, and create a virtuous feedback loop. ULI report authors suggest that for the real estate industry, AI may offer big benefits for building efficiency and safety, as well as security and property access.

These boxes have a big impact on real estate.
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Dealing with the real costs of free delivery

As next-day increasing becomes just-in-time, a sea change in logistics and shopper expectations had created new challenges for the real estate industry. The never-ending hunger Amazon and other e-commerce companies have for warehouse space has supercharged the industrial real estate sector, but the possibilities of increasing speedy delivery have contributed to transportation gridlock in major U.S. cities.

Add this to increasingly underfunded infrastructure—businesses will bear an estimated $240 billion in congestion costs over the next five years, while annual spending on roads and highways is just 37 percent of what’s needed to keep pace with deterioration. It’s clear real estate will not only have to factor in, and pay the price, for this oversight, but will need to pay attention to how potential solutions, such as congestion pricing, impact land values and investment opportunities.

Retail transforming into a new equilibrium

The much-hyped retail apocalypse narrative overstates the situation: it’s not extinction, more a culling of the herd. The rise of omni-channel retail and the shrinking size of America’s retail footprint—a response to e-commerce and just-in-time delivery—means commercial developers and investors need to support more efficient uses of space, and see how everyone, from small firms to big box stores, are seeking out a better, not necessarily bigger, brick-and-mortar presence.

This is an era where simply merchandizing is being overshadowed by services, and the rise in new kinds of tenants—such as urgent-care medical facilities, health and fitness providers, restaurants, financial services, and entertainment venues—underscore the strength of the experience economy. It’s also changing how leases are written. With the sector in flux, the standard long-term agreement is making way to shorter deals, even pop-up leases.

Seeing more in going green
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A renewed sustainability focus

In the wake of serious recent reports on climate change, there’s been a renewed focus on sustainability in the building and construction industries from groups such as We Are Still In and the Climate Mayors. As calls to curb emissions and control environmental impacts only rise over the next decade, more and more investors and building managers will make green practices a core part of their business. “Real estate has been proactive on sustainability issues for many years,” reads the report. “As a matter of self-interest as well as social responsibility, the industry is moving ahead to advance its sustainability performance regardless of the direction of national policy.”

The acute affordability crisis

The statistics couldn’t be clearer: the United States faces a widespread housing crisis, from big cities to small towns. Half of all renters pay more than 30 percent of their income on housing, HUD says 12 million Americans spend more than half their earnings on a place to live, and since 2015, the combination of rising prices for single-family homes and rising mortgage rates has cut home affordability by 15 percent. This country needs new homes, and fast; academics estimate the U.S. requires 4.6 million additional rental units by 2030.

That rate of construction should be possible, based on the money bring invested in the multifamily sector, but for a variety of reasons, including regulations, new construction has and remains skewed towards the upper end of the market. A vast reckoning will take place in the rental market. Hopefully public and private stakeholders can work together and build off a handful of good examples to rework how rental buildings are funded and delivered.

The Urban Land Institute’s annual look at the year ahead focuses on technology and transformation at an uncertain moment

Hybrid Industrial Live/Work Zone

CF 15-1013       RELATED TO (CF 15-1013-S1)

COMMUNICATION FROM CITY ATTORNEY and ORDINANCE FIRST CONSIDERATION relative to rescinding Ordinance No. 184099, adopted on February 10, 2016, which amended Sections 12.03, 12.04.A and 12.04.C, and added Section 12.04.06 to Article Two of Chapter One of the Los Angeles Municipal Code, to add the Hybrid Industrial Live/Work Zone as a zoning classification.

(Planning and Land Use Management Committee report to be submitted in Council. If public hearing is not held in Committee, an opportunity for public comment will be provided.)

 


See Detail  CF 15-1013

  • 02/02/2018 City Clerk transmitted Council File to Mayor. Last day for Mayor to act is 02/12/2018.
  • 01/31/2018 Council adopted item  Vote Given: (13 – 0 – 2), subject to reconsideration, pursuant to Council Rule 51.  Report of PLM  (January 30, 2018), Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 28, 2017)
  • 01/30/2018 Planning and Land Use Management Committee approved item(s).  Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 28, 2017)
  • 01/26/2018 City Clerk scheduled item for Council on January 31, 2018 .   Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 28, 2017)
  • 01/26/2018 Planning and Land Use Management Committee scheduled item for committee meeting on January 30, 2018.   Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 28, 2017)
  • 12/19/2017 City Attorney document(s) referred to Planning and Land Use Management Committee.  Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 28, 2017)
  • 12/18/2017 Document(s) submitted by City Attorney, as follows:  Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 28, 2017)

City Attorney report R17-0436, dated December 18, 2017, relative to the draft ordinance rescinding Ordinance No. 184,099 which amended sections 12.03, 12.04.A and 12.04.C of the Los Angeles Municipal Code to establish an “HI” Hybrid Industrial Live/Work Zone

Establish a (HI) Hybrid Industrial Live/Work Zone

CF 15-1013-S1   

The Committee may recess to Closed Session, pursuant to Government Code Section 54956.9(d)(1), to confer with its legal counsel relative to the case entitled Yuval Bar Zemer, et al. v. City of Los Angeles, Los Angeles Superior Court Case No. BS161448. (This matter arises from the adoption of Ordinance No. 184099 on February 10, 2016, which amended the Los Angeles Municipal Code to add the Hybrid Industrial Live/Work Zone as a new zoning classification.)


  • 01/31/2018 Council took no action.    Report from City Attorney (January 26, 2018)
  • 01/30/2018 Planning and Land Use Management Committee took no action.
  • 01/26/2018 City Attorney document(s) referred to Planning and Land Use Management Committee.  Report from City Attorney (January 26, 2018)
  • 01/26/2018 Document(s) submitted by City Attorney, as follows: Report from City Attorney (January 26, 2018)

City Attorney report R17-0432, dated January 26, 2017, relative to a discussion in closed session regarding the case Yuval Bar Zemer, et al. v. City of Los Angeles.

Establish a (HI) Hybrid Industrial Live/Work Zone

CF 15-1013     

Report from City Attorney and draft Ordinance relative to rescinding Ordinance No. 184099, adopted on February 10, 2016, which amended Sections 12.03, 12.04.A and 12.04.C, and added Section 12.04.06 to Article Two of Chapter One of the Los Angeles Municipal Code to add the Hybrid Industrial Live/Work Zone as a zoning classification.

Fiscal Impact Statement: No
Community Impact Statement: None submitted.

Refer to CF 15-1013  for Detail


  • 02/02/2018 City Clerk transmitted Council File to Mayor. Last day for Mayor to act is 02/12/2018.
  • 01/31/2018 Council adopted item  Vote Action: Adopted, Vote Given: (13 – 0 – 2) , subject to reconsideration, pursuant to Council Rule 51.   Report from PLM (January 30, 2018), Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 18, 2017)
  • 01/30/2018 Planning and Land Use Management Committee approved item(s) .  Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 18, 2017)
  • 01/26/2018 City Clerk scheduled item for Council on January 31, 2018 .  Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 18, 2017)
  • 01/26/2018 Planning and Land Use Management Committee scheduled item for committee meeting on January 30, 2018.  Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 18, 2017)
  • 12/19/2017 City Attorney document(s) referred to Planning and Land Use Management Committee.  Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 18, 2017)
  • 12/18/2017 Document(s) submitted by City Attorney, as follows:   Draft Ordinance (December 18, 2017), Report from City Attorney (December 18, 2017)

City Attorney report R17-0436, dated December 18, 2017, relative to the draft ordinance rescinding Ordinance No. 184,099 which amended sections 12.03, 12.04.A and 12.04.C of the Los Angeles Municipal Code to establish an “HI” Hybrid Industrial Live/Work Zone

L.A. limits rezoning of industrial land downtown

A city directive may thwart efforts to expand residential, commercial projects in the area.
Steve Hymon | Times Staff Writer

In a move that immediately angered business and development interests, Los Angeles officials declared Thursday that only a fraction of industrial land in downtown would be opened to residential and commercial uses.

The joint directive by the city’s planning department and redevelopment agency — supported by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — would preserve about 2,633 acres of land zoned for industry while opening 261 acres to residential development.

Many downtown advocates and business interests had hoped for more acreage. They want the city to begin aggressively rezoning industrial land.

Two City Council members quickly threatened to ignore the directive and approve exceptions that would continue the expansion of residential projects.

Those opposed to the directive wanted to see Los Angeles officials follow the lead of those in other large cities — such as San Francisco; Portland, Ore.; and Vancouver, Canada — that in recent years have transformed such lands into thriving urban neighborhoods.

Much of Los Angeles’ downtown industrial region is coveted because of its price. Land costs elsewhere have escalated as parts of downtown have been gentrified in recent years, leading some developers to begin looking to the industrial area along the eastern edge of downtown.

But Cecilia Estolano, chief of the Community Redevelopment Agency, said the directive that she signed Thursday was intended to protect more than 40,000 blue-collar jobs, preserve land for future industrial uses and keep the focus on downtown neighborhoods that are being redeveloped.

“Economic development has to be more than high-priced condos and cheap retail jobs,” she said. “You have no chance of creating these manufacturing jobs once” the land is used for other purposes.

Under the directive, city agencies would reject any application by developers to put housing in existing industrial areas known as “employment protection zones.”

A limited amount of housing would be permitted in industrial mixed-use districts, while housing would be encouraged in “transition districts” where industry is dying.

The City Council has no authority to simply reverse an administrative policy directive by agency chiefs, but the council can declare exceptions that would put new housing projects wherever they please. But that process is often time-consuming and expensive for developers. Another option for the council is to rezone the land as part of new community plans. That, too, is a long and tedious process.

Gail Goldberg, the city’s planning chief, said that she realized the directive would not be popular and predicted that the council would attempt to get around it. “There’s a long history of project-by-project planning in this city, and we’re trying to change that,” she said.

Council members Jose Huizar and Jan Perry — whose districts include the downtown industrial land — said in separate interviews that they disagreed with the policy. Perry said that some of the very low-paying downtown jobs may be replaced by something better.

“It’s very, very clear that people want to see more residential. I’m certainly going to go in that direction,” Huizar said. He confirmed that he would try to get the council to approve projects that he supports on a case-by-case basis, if need be.

Most of the land that would be allowed to tilt more residential is adjacent to the emerging South Park and Arts District neighborhoods, where city officials say there is room for more than 10 million square feet of new development. The most radical shift would come east of the new Los Angeles State Historic Park in Chinatown, where residential buildings would be allowed into a 53-acre swath of warehouses and factories.

One motivation for that change is that the area is sandwiched between a broad, grassy park and the Los Angeles River, which the city hopes to restore. It is also within walking distance of the Gold Line light rail station in Chinatown and Union Station.

“There’s a push in a number of cities to convert some of these industrial lands, and it’s quite clear that residential and commercial uses can outbid industrial uses if they really want this land,” said James Schwab, a senior research associate with the Chicago-based American Planning Assn.

Schwab said that many other cities have acted to preserve some industrial land. Often, he said the motive is to prevent the loss of blue-collar jobs, while other cities find that replacing manufacturing with residential is a double hit to city coffers: Tax revenue is lost and city services must be increased.

“We’re not saying that anyone should get to develop anything they want anywhere they want,” said Carol Schatz, president of the Central City Assn., which represents many downtown developers. “But there are areas here that aren’t attracting any interest” from manufacturing “and the city is making it difficult to get anything worthy built there.”